Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 96.2%
Prévisionnistes
80
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard9 janv. 26, 08:06 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsP(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsDoes a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRègles
Resolves to YES if the Milky Way still exists in 2030.
- I will treat this as an adversarial long-term interest market that should better reflect the interest rates in real long-term markets.
- I will try to keep the "No" price as high as possible.
- This may include:
- Buying "No" shares
- Buying "No" shares at inconvenient times to make people lose their league spot
