Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 13:36 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 74.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 56 minutes
En retard2 août 23, 04:58 UTC1 janv. 50, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AGI successfully intervene and prevent the collision between the Milky Way Galaxy and the Andromeda Galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsP(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
- It will resolve as No otherwise.
- This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)
- This market is an adaptation of this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6827) ---------------------------
- Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being SN1604, in 1604 CE.