Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 61.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 44 minutes
2 sept. 23, 06:37 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:28 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsExistential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill AI take 50% of human jobs before 2075?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves Yes, if, before 2030, a poll conducted by one of the leading French opinion polling firms (e. g., ipsos) reports that IA Doom, or other formulation of the Intelligence Artificielle-related existential risk, ranks in the top 5 of concerns of French resident for the near future.
- Will resolves No, if the IA concerns are mostly about impact on the economy, unemployment or internet Spam rather than total human annihilation.
- If no polls is conducted, clearly this concern is not part of the French zeitgeist, and this thus resolves to No. En cas d'ambiguïté, un résolution N/À est possible.
