Will Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Criminalité et justiceOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 17:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Obsolète10 janv. 23, 00:19 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.