Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59.4%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète2 août 26, 17:22 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Ukraine sign an EU Accession Treaty by December 2027?
FutuurWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI treaty between US and China by end of 2032?
Manifold MarketsCanada applies for full EU membership by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the European Union agrees and signs a major new treaty before January 1st 2035.
- A “major treaty” must amend, replace, or substantially supplement the EU’s primary constitutional framework, with changes comparable in significance to the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, or Lisbon Treaties.
- Qualifying changes may include substantial reforms to EU institutions, decision-making or voting rules, the division of powers between the EU and member states, fiscal integration, defence policy, enlargement procedures, or membership and withdrawal rules.
- The treaty must have a finalized text and be formally signed by representatives of all EU member states before the deadline.
- It does not need to have entered into force or completed national ratification by that date.
- The following do not qualify on their own: accession or withdrawal treaties, trade agreements, ordinary legislative acts, non-binding declarations, limited technical amendments, treaties involving only a subset of EU member states, or agreements that do not materially alter the EU’s primary legal framework.
