Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 52.9%
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18
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
16 mars 26, 21:32 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketWill any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?
Manifold MarketsMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if the European AI Office or an EU member state authority publicly announces a formal enforcement action under the EU AI Act (Regulation 2024/1689) against a provider of a General-Purpose AI (GPAI) model with systemic risk (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta, Mistral, xAI).
- Qualifying "formal enforcement actions" must be publicly announced and include any of the following:
- A formal investigation
- A formal Request for Information (RFI)
- A notice of non-compliance or fine
- A binding order to withdraw, modify, or correct an AI system