Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète8 juil. 26, 20:01 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWhich bills will become law in 2026?
KalshiWhich bills will become law in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).
- Here is an article about the substance by Charlie Bullock: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/congress-should-do-something--the-case-for-(fixing)-the-great-american-ai-act
- I can't really figure out what the status is.
- This market uses an expansive definition of "become law".
- It resolves YES if the bill is passed and becomes law in 2026, even if it is somewhat watered down or modified, as long as it remains an AI regulation and/or preemption bill.
- It also resolves YES if the bill's substantive provisions are fully folded into another bill which becomes law, though it resolves NO if only super dumb and toothless provisions make it in.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 70% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).