Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65%
Prévisionnistes
0
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète16 juil. 26, 01:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.
- Audit Motion 002
- Will at least one frontier AI company publish recurring organizational governance metrics alongside capability benchmarks, in a single document, on or before 31 December 2026?
- Research Thesis
- This prediction tests whether frontier AI governance will evolve from policy disclosure toward performance disclosure.
- Frontier AI companies now routinely publish governance frameworks, responsible scaling policies, and regulatory compliance documents.
Marchés ouverts
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 182,3 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 résultats de plus
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.