Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83.4%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète26 juin 26, 22:43 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsAI capability growth this year?
KalshiWill the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2027, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas-s0zyntZ0LI
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: