Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 55.5%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète20 sept. 25, 22:10 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
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KalshiRègles
SimpleQA is an obscure trivia benchmark OpenAI uses to evaluate hallucination rate.
- Resolves yes if a Frontier model released by OpenAI declines to answer SimpleQA questions at least 5 times as often as it incorrectly answers them.
- To resolve yes, the model must not have access to the internet or any database of facts.
- I will be largely looking towards OpenAI's evaluations to resolve this market but will accept 3rd party evals if OpenAI stops using SimpleQA.
- OpenAI's latest frontier model GPT-5-thinking has only a 1:8 ratio.
- However, OpenAI claimed in a recent paper that they have new insights into why LLMs hallucinate and how to prevent them.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : SimpleQA is an obscure trivia benchmark OpenAI uses to evaluate hallucination rate.