Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète25 juil. 26, 16:32 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?
Manifold MarketsWill the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWhen will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
KalshiWhen will P vs NP be resolved?
KalshiRègles
The BB(6) candidate machines seem to exhibit Collatz-like behavior, but in a form that asks about specific sequences rather than a question about all sequences.
- But the BB machines don't tend to ask about cycles, so a lot of relevant tools don't apply.
- BB(6) machine is the same rules as this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/EvanDaniel/will-the-bb6-machine-be-known-by-20)The Weak Collatz Conjecture should be resolved to a similar standard of proof, whether positively or negatively.
- n/a if both are generally agreed to be independent of ZFC.
Marchés ouverts
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 24,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume total
- 302,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2099.
- Comment Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The BB(6) candidate machines seem to exhibit Collatz-like behavior, but in a form that asks about specific sequences rather than a question about all sequences.