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Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Obsolète25 nov. 23, 23:48 UTC31 déc. 33, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurWill the US attack a NATO member, and will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack a NATO country before Russia does?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack Europe with drones before October 31?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Russia attack Europe with military force?
Manifold MarketsRussia military action against EU country by which date?
PolymarketRègles
The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:
- With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
- Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. -DGAP
- While it isn't clear when "intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine", let's try with roughly a 10 year period from now.
- Resolves YES when Russia intentionally attacks a NATO member.
- Accidents like a misfired missiles are not sufficient.