Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.1%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète17 avr. 23, 07:32 UTC31 déc. 29, 16:01 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWhat payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhat will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This question is essentially designed to capture 'will Neutron be succesful?
- Any Neutron that takes off (no launch tower) will count as a flight (I am not too concerned that there could be 50 failures!)
- https://www.rocketlabusa.com/launch/neutron/
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question is essentially designed to capture 'will Neutron be succesful?