Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 16:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.6%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète11 août 26, 14:29 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first rocket launch from the UK's SaxaVord spaceport be successful?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiWhich rocket will launch from Earth with humans on board first?
Manifold MarketsWill a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.