Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 62.8%
Non 62.8%Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète22 déc. 23, 10:26 UTC1 janv. 30, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Luigi Mangione publish a book before 2030?
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
will Resolve YES: if a new book in the series of "what if" by Randall Munroe is out by 2030, even if the book is named something other than "what if 3" but focuses on answering hypothetical questions will Resolve NO: as long as he don't publish book with this focus will resolve no, even if he publishes books with different focus (such as "How to" or "thing explainer")