Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 53.7%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète25 févr. 26, 19:14 UTC1 janv. 27, 19:08 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Quroe's favourite animal prop bets - It ______
Manifold MarketsWill any restaurant serve hybrid-rice (rice grains integrated with animal cells) regularly by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Referencing this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal)Hopefully it will manifestly obvious™ (i.e. wildly different shape/structure to human e.g. a dog or horse wouldn't count, a cat [barbed penis] or hyena [external vagina] would count imo) but I'm willing to defer to a Manifold poll if it's hotly contested
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The norm for the species is what counts, not malformations or abnormalities.
- A private part only qualifies as "wacky" if the unusual structure is standard/default for that animal.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Penile bones (baculum) do not count as wacky private parts for resolution purposes, as they are common among our closest primate relatives and don't produce a strong "wait wtf" reaction.
- The bar for "wacky" is set higher — examples like snail love darts or spider genitalia are the intended reference point.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 54% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Referencing this market: