Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.3%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète17 oct. 23, 14:54 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRègles
Based on the resolution to this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/CamillePerrin/in-what-year-will-quantum-advantage?r=Sm9zZXBoTm9vbmFu)Resolves YES if quantum advantage is demonstrated before 2030, according to the linked market (i.e., the linked market resolves to some number) and NO if it is not (i.e., the linked market resolves N/A).
- If the linked market resolves N/A due to some edge case, rather than a definite case of quantum advantage not being demonstrated before 2030, this market will resolve N/A as well.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Based on the resolution to this market: