Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.6%
Prévisionnistes
101
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète24 août 24, 22:15 UTC25 août 27, 20:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028
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PolymarketWill Ekrem Imamoglu leave jail by the end of 2026?
FutuurReckless Ben in jail by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)
- Resolves Yes if Pavel Durov is actually going to prison as a result of this whole situation.
- Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this.
- Also resolves No if three years from now there is no meaningful conclusion to this story.
- Update (Aug 26): Regarding the exact definition of “go to jail” in this market - Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes.
- A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes.
Marchés ouverts
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
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POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
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- Yes5.9%
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POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
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POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
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- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
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- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? doit être résolu le 25 août 2027.
- Comment Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)