Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
One-OffCriminalité et justiceTechSociété et culture10mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 13:11 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.6%
Non 93.6%Prévisionnistes
101
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète24 août 24, 22:15 UTC25 août 27, 20:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow Long Will Trump Go To Jail?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk ever go to jail after being convicted of a crime?
Manifold MarketsJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
PolymarketTim Walz in jail by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)
- Resolves Yes if Pavel Durov is actually going to prison as a result of this whole situation.
- Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this.
- Also resolves No if three years from now there is no meaningful conclusion to this story.
- Update (Aug 26): Regarding the exact definition of “go to jail” in this market - Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes.
- A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes.
