Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète28 juin 23, 01:24 UTC1 janv. 27, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Sourcery with Molly O'Shea: Will Donald Trump go on?
KalshiWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk ever go to jail after being convicted of a crime?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRègles
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? ?
- Manifold Markets cote < 1 year (includes 0 time) à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Based on time sentenced.