Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 09:21 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète28 juin 23, 01:24 UTC1 janv. 27, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump go to Maine before election day?
Manifold MarketsSourcery with Molly O'Shea: Will Donald Trump go on?
KalshiWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?
KalshiRègles
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
