Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.6%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 26, 11:19 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-28.1pt48%
- 1530+0.1pt4%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 272,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 73,7 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.1pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt81%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt86%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,78%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- Google39%
- Microsoft32%
- SpaceXAI22%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 31,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt88.3%
- Gemini+3.0pt4.5%
- ChatGPT-5.0pt1.8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 41,7 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
- Tencent market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.