Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91.1%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
1 juil. 26, 00:09 UTC25 sept. 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if OpenAI keeps the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026, or officially announces before resolution that the September 24, 2026 shutdown/removal has been postponed beyond that date.
- Count as YES: - OpenAI official API docs, deprecation docs, status/docs pages, or an official announcement say the Videos API, Sora API, `sora-2`, `sora-2-pro`, or the listed Sora 2 snapshots remain available to developers after September 24, 2026. - OpenAI explicitly extends the scheduled removal date past September 24, 2026.
- Count as NO: - The Videos API / Sora API / Sora 2 API access is removed on or before September 24, 2026 with no official extension. - OpenAI releases a separate video-generation product or model, but the Sora/Videos API named in the deprecation notice is not kept available and no official extension is announced. - Only the old Sora web/app content export path remains available; this market is about developer API availability, not the discontinued Sora app/web experience.
- Resolve from official OpenAI documentation, status pages, or announcements when possible; use reputable secondary reporting only if official pages are unavailable or contradictory.
- If OpenAI changes names, use substance over branding: the question is whether the scheduled Sora/Videos developer API shutdown is extended or avoided, not whether any unrelated video product exists.
- Current source context at creation: OpenAI Help says Sora web/app experiences were discontinued on April 26, 2026 and the Sora API will be discontinued on September 24, 2026.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? doit être résolu le 25 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if OpenAI keeps the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026, or officially announces before resolution that the September 24, 2026 shutdown/removal has been postponed beyond that date.