Will nuclear ballistic missile submarines become obsolete by 2100?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / UkraineChine
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète18 mars 26, 00:42 UTC31 déc. 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if either of the following conditions are met by January 1, 2100:
- No successor class: At least 4 of 5 nations (US, UK, France, China, Russia) have not laid down the keel of a successor-class SSBN beyond their current next-generation program — Columbia (US), Dreadnought (UK), SNLE 3G (France), Type 096 (China), or post-Borei (Russia).
- Fleet drawdown: At least 4 of 5 of those same nations maintain 2 or fewer SSBNs simultaneously, as reported by credible open-source intelligence or official disclosures (e.g., IISS Military Balance, SIPRI, Congressional Research Service equivalents).
- Resolves NO otherwise at market close.
