Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 85.7%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 23, 13:01 UTC1 janv. 31, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
PolymarketWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump visit North Korea by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This question seeks to predict the political and socio-economic stability of North Korea, specifically focusing on whether the country will experience a collapse of its current regime or governmental structure before the end of the year 2030.
- For this question, "collapse" is defined as a significant and observable breakdown in the current governing framework, which could manifest in several ways, including but not limited to:
- Major Overhaul in Leadership: A complete change in the top leadership, not following the established line of succession, due to internal upheaval, coup, revolution, or other extraordinary political changes.
- Severe Economic Breakdown: A catastrophic economic failure that leads to a breakdown of internal order, resulting in a humanitarian crisis or necessitating international intervention.
- Large-scale Civil Unrest: Widespread civil disorder or an uprising that effectively disrupts the current governmental control and leads to a change in the regime.
- External Intervention: An intervention by foreign powers that significantly alters or displaces the current governmental structure.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question seeks to predict the political and socio-economic stability of North Korea, specifically focusing on whether the country will experience a collapse of its current regime or governmental structure before the end of the year 2030.