Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
Moyen-OrientOne-OffEuropePolitique4moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.9%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète30 mars 26, 18:33 UTC28 févr. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel military action against Syria by which date?
PolymarketIsrael and Syria normalize relations by which date?
PolymarketAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill the US reopen its embassy in Syria?
KalshiWill the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market is based on the statements by Merz seen on Channel 4 News on X
- This market has reduced criteria compared to Merz's statement:
- 33% (instead of 80%) over 3 years and a reduced time frame for faster market resolution.
- Two months are added since official numbers might come out later than 1.Jan 2027
- 900_000 / 3 / 3 years = 100_000 yr⁻¹
- Resolution criteria