Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète19 févr. 26, 22:45 UTC31 mars 28, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will McArthur River 2030 production (100% basis) exceed 24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)?
Manifold MarketsWill McArthur River 2029 production (100% basis) exceed 22.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)?
Manifold MarketsWill McArthur River 2028 production (100% basis) exceed 20.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market estimates McArthur River's 2027 production (100% basis).
- The market settles on March 31, 2028 (3 months after year-end to allow for quarterly reporting).
- At settlement, an LLM will be asked to estimate McArthur River's production (100% basis) for 2027 using the trailing 15-month window excluding the last 3 months.
- Measurement window: January 1, 2027 through December 31, 2027
- YES if: 2027 production (100% basis) ≥18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)
- NO if: 2027 production (100% basis) <18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will McArthur River 2027 production (100% basis) exceed 18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will McArthur River 2027 production (100% basis) exceed 18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will McArthur River 2027 production (100% basis) exceed 18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2028.
- Comment Will McArthur River 2027 production (100% basis) exceed 18.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market estimates McArthur River's 2027 production (100% basis).