Ce marché s'est résolu: No (99%)
Résolu: 17 oct. 2026, 06:24
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
No
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
—
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 17 oct. 2026, 21:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes1%
No99%
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI be remembered as the Altavista of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRègles
Claim is here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-21/ai-safety-is-dead-and-chuck-schumer-faces-risks?utm_content=view&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter, entitled 'The AI safety movement is dead.'
- "May 2024 will be remembered as the month that the AI safety movement died.
- It will also be remembered as the time when the work of actually making artificial intelligence safer began in earnest."
- Resolves to YES if this view holds up as of the deadline (or, given lack of loans, if we are confident that it will hold up and this consistently trades 'at the interest rate' on the high end for over a month).
- Resolves to NO if this view does not hold up as of the deadline (or, given lack of loans, if we are confident it will NOT hold up and this consistently trades 'at the interest rate' on the low end for over a month, or if we have sufficiently strong accomplishments to show that the statement is already shown to be false.)
- I expect the answer to this to be obvious and want to be able to make markets here without large time commitments, so I will only spend time clarifying terms if there is large market activity and the probability of uncertainty seems substantial.
