Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNolan (2026) 97.6%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète23 juil. 26, 19:54 UTC31 déc. 27, 20:51 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]
Manifold MarketsWill Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on which adaptation of Homer's The Odyssey is preferred by the Manifold community, subject to the following rules:
- Grok's Release Condition: Elon Musk pledged that the named outcome will produce a "full-length movie" of The Odyssey by the end of 2026.
- If a feature-length (at least 40 minutes long) adaptation of The Odyssey generated by the named outcome is not made publicly viewable on X or another platform by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, this market will automatically resolve to Nolan (2026).
- Community Preference Poll: If the the named outcome adaptation is successfully released by the deadline, the creator will pin a poll in the comments of this market (or link to a dedicated Manifold poll) asking: "Which version of The Odyssey do you prefer: Christopher Nolan's (2026) or the named outcome's?"
- Voting & Final Resolution: The poll will run for 7 days.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Nolan (2026) à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria