Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 90%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète23 déc. 22, 09:15 UTC31 déc. 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Hungary be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Italy?
PolymarketMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by which date?
PolymarketWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
MetaculusRègles
Les critères de résolution ne sont pas encore disponibles pour ce marché. Cette section sera remplie lors des prochains rafraîchissements une fois les règles de la source enregistrées.
Marchés ouverts
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.3pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 617,8 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.7pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Volume total
- 846,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 97,8 k €
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+1.5pt79%
- SPD21%
- CDU0%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 433 k €
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson76.7%
- Ulf Kristersson21.4%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.7pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Italy be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Italy be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Italy be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2031.