Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.8%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 25, 17:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Israel recognize a state of Palestine before the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
PolymarketWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
PolymarketWho will recognize Palestine before 2027?
KalshiWill Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Counts only if it is not recognized by any other UN full member nation.
- In 2025 they recognized Somaliland
- Resolves YES if the Bay Area ceases to exist before close.
- Resolves NO if New York ceases to exist before close.
- Resolves N/A if AGI comes next Friday the 13, and resolves 67% if I hear someone except @JeromeHPowell say 67 within 2 hours of creating this market.