Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.5%
Prévisionnistes
75
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
23 juin 25, 03:29 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare
Manifold MarketsWill the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2030, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Iran has successfully sunk a U.S. Navy ship with a displacement of more than 2000 tons.
- The term "sunk" is defined as causing a U.S. Navy vessel to become submerged and inoperable due to hostile actions attributed to Iran.
- This includes submarines that are sunk.
- If no such incident is reported by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Iran has developed a range of naval capabilities aimed at countering U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria