Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 71.8%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 sept. 23, 15:42 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Intuitive Machines is a private spaceflight company.
- The IM-3 mission has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon.
- For a successful mission the Nova-C lander needs to soft-land on the moon such that the landing does not interfere with the function of the payloads, and the mission timeline is not cut by more than 50%.
- IM-3 is preceeded by IM-1 and IM-2.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 72% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Intuitive Machines is a private spaceflight company.