Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
15 août 26, 00:02 UTC15 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
PolymarketWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
Polymarket0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by which date?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 15 for any date from 2026-08-15 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.
- Otherwise NO.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — i.e. the n_total field.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered.
- Resolution source (named, public, machine-readable): IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for portid='chokepoint6', as published in the PortWatch dashboard and its downloadable / ArcGIS feed: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&resultRecordCount=30&f=json
- The 7-day moving average is the mean of n_total over the stated date and the six preceding days.