Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientManifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: No (98.6%)
Résolu: 21 oct. 2026, 00:23
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
No
À 7 jours
99%
À 24 heures
—
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 21 oct. 2026, 16:41 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes1.4%
No98.6%
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWill bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 15 for any date from 2026-08-15 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.
- Otherwise NO.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships — i.e. the n_total field.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered.
- Resolution source (named, public, machine-readable): IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data for portid='chokepoint6', as published in the PortWatch dashboard and its downloadable / ArcGIS feed: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portid%3D%27chokepoint6%27&outFields=date,n_total&orderByFields=date%20DESC&resultRecordCount=30&f=json
- The 7-day moving average is the mean of n_total over the stated date and the six preceding days.