Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète29 juin 26, 17:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?
Manifold MarketsMedicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
Manifold MarketsWill GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
I run Species, a Youtube channel that makes high-effort documentaries about AI risk.
- The current biggest bottleneck in me producing more videos is just simply working longer hours!
- I'm committing to tracking 12 hours of productive time in Rize.io, 6 days a week, for roughly 5 months, until the end of 2026.
- Appreciate you betting even a token amount on this market for extra social pressure :)
- I tried doing a full year previously and only made it 5 months, so will try to make up for it by doing it the rest of the year.
- Resolves YES if the criteria mentioned are met.
