Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
ÉconomieOne-OffSociety & Culture4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 81.3%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète20 mai 24, 12:23 UTC25 déc. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/.
- She actually speculates she might only work for 3 more years.
- Resolves to YES if Avital Balwit has gainful or plausibly impactful employment, including self-employment but excluding household work and raising children, during the year 2030, constituting an average of at least 20 hours/week of work over some 6 month period.
- Domestic work such as child care does not count towards this.
- Resolves to NO if Avital Balwit does not have such gainful or plausibly impactful employment to this extent, for any reason.
- Resolves to 50% if we have no idea what she is up to.
Marchés ouverts
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- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
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- 16,4 k €
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- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
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- Recession this year?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 81% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? doit être résolu le 25 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/.