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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète5 nov. 25, 21:15 UTC15 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSerrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Will Google DeepMind publicly release or announce a recursive self-improvement (RSI) capable AI system before January 1, 2026?
- Context: Recent developments show major AI labs racing toward RSI capabilities.
- In May 2025, Google DeepMind unveiled AlphaEvolve, an evolutionary coding agent using LLMs to design and optimize algorithms.
- Meta has established a superintelligence research team with massive infrastructure investments.
- The field is treating RSI as a critical milestone toward AGI.
- Resolution: Market resolves YES if Google DeepMind publicly announces or releases a system explicitly capable of recursive self-improvement (autonomously optimizing its own algorithms/architecture) before January 1, 2026.