Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 68.2%
Prévisionnistes
118
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète16 déc. 23, 20:03 UTC2 janv. 35, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?
Manifold MarketsUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
AGI aims to replicate the full spectrum of human cognitive abilities, including perception, reasoning, problem-solving, creativity, and social intelligence, across a wide range of domains.
- The goal is to create machines that can learn from experience, generalize knowledge across different tasks, and adapt to new situations without requiring reprogramming.
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 68% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : AGI aims to replicate the full spectrum of human cognitive abilities, including perception, reasoning, problem-solving, creativity, and social intelligence, across a wide range of domains.