Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.8%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète20 févr. 26, 14:39 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk be assassinated before the end of Trumps presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
FutuurElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk is assassinated before January 1, 2030.
- For resolution purposes, assassination is defined as the deliberate, premeditated killing of Musk by another person.
- Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from law enforcement, medical examiners, or credible news sources documenting that Musk's death resulted from an assassination attempt.
- Deaths from natural causes, accidents, or other non-assassination-related circumstances resolve NO.
Marchés ouverts
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
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- Yes-4.5pt35%
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 676 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,2 k €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,6 k €
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Volume total
- 577,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,7 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria