Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.2%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard13 avr. 26, 09:04 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky have a debate for >$10k before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Examples that would resolve this market to "yes":
- An announcement by either Eliezer or Anthropic that he is involved in their research in some capacity.
- A paper is released co-authored by Eliezer and Anthropic.
- Eliezer joins Anthropic as an advisor or member of staff.
- Other ambiguous cases will be judged by me.
