Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 74.3%
Prévisionnistes
251
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète17 févr. 26, 04:15 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Putin still be in power by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2027, Amanda Askell is employed at Anthropic, and holds a position of comparable influence to her current role writing Claude's constitution.
- If Askell has left Anthropic or been significantly demoted / sideways-promoted, the market resolves NO.
- If her role has evolved but maintains equivalent strategic influence over Claude's development and values, it resolves YES.
- (Description edited from AI generation.)
