Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 64.6%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète6 mai 26, 06:39 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?
Manifold MarketsDuolingo language rankings · Top 10 in 2026?
KalshiWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRègles
Got paid $10k for a debate with 47f
- https://youtu.be/FIg4zQKBpAs?t=3467
- Said he'd raise his prices next time.
- Resolves YES if he raises his price AND someone pays it before EOY 2027
