Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
One-OffIA1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 87.5%
Prévisionnistes
94
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète14 mai 23, 07:54 UTC2 janv. 28, 12:30 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.