Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.5%
Prévisionnistes
94
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard14 mai 23, 07:54 UTC2 janv. 28, 12:30 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Lionel Messi publicly claim Lamine Yamal is his son by end of Dec 31, 2026? (jokes count)
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.