Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
One-OffIA13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 75.8%
Non 75.8%Prévisionnistes
67
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète13 févr. 24, 16:54 UTC1 janv. 40, 12:30 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.
- Same as this market, but 50% and 2040
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)
