Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
One-OffIA3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.1%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète15 juil. 25, 23:27 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote:
- My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people’s.
- I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago
- This question will concern any future updates of a similar kind that Gary Marcus may publicly make.
- If he suggests in public that his p(doom) has risen further to some figure at or above 10% before 2027, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise the market will resolve NO.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote: