Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 52.1%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 25, 20:28 UTC18 févr. 35, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.
- His current stance on UFOs is rooted in skepticism of the extraterrestrial hypothesis, arguing that any advanced civilization capable of interstellar travel would likely be superintelligent and would have already had a visible impact on Earth.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, within one year after losing his UFO bet, Eliezer Yudkowsky makes public statements (via blog posts, social media, interviews, or other public forums) explicitly connecting or attributing the UFO phenomenon to artificial intelligence or AI-related technology.
- The market will resolve NO if:
- Yudkowsky does not make such associations within the one-year timeframe
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) doit être résolu le 18 février 2035.
- Comment Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.