At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 54.8%
Prévisionnistes
221
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 38 minutes
14 mars 23, 20:29 UTC1 janv. 35, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill "An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsIf there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...
Manifold MarketsWill @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.