At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 54.8%
Prévisionnistes
221
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète14 mars 23, 20:29 UTC1 janv. 35, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? sera-t-il résolu ?
- At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.