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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Régulation
  3. Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
Manifold Markets

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

RégulationOne-OffHealth & MedicineChina4a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
2026 33%
En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes

2

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour avant-hier

Obsolète
13 juin 26, 23:0731 déc. 30, 23:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

202633%

Règles

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.

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Règles

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.