Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
One-OffHealth & MedicineChina4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2030 69.2%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète13 juin 26, 23:07 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
- Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
- Resolution Rules:
- YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2030 à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria