Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
RégulationOne-OffChineEurope13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.1%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard25 janv. 25, 21:23 UTC31 déc. 39, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Background GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs are currently one of the fastest-growing segments in the pharmaceutical industry, primarily used for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.
- The market is dominated by private companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
- Many sources predict a very significant impact of cost of those drugs on public health systems, which could potentially be solved by a Manhattan Project-like development effort to create a government-owned alternative.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
- A company that is >50% owned by any national government receives regulatory approval for a new GLP-1 drug in at least two major markets (US, EU, UK, Japan, China) before January 1, 2040
- The drug must be a novel GLP-1 receptor agonist, not a generic version or biosimilar of an existing drug
