Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.7%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète4 mai 23, 07:34 UTC1 mai 43, 13:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will occur during the reign of King Charles III? 🤴🇬🇧👑
Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich country will the U.S. declare war on next?
Manifold MarketsCharles III still King of England through the end of 2026?
FutuurBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketRègles
In the UK the declaration of war is one of the royal prerogatives but of course in practice it's complicated.
- This resolves YES if during Charles III's reign the UK declares war on some country under authorization from Charles and with his Consent (even if the authorization is presented by someone else on his behalf).
- Market will be extended as necessary.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt22%
- October 31-3.5pt17%
- September 30-4.1pt5%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 540,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.5pt79.2%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt16.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31+3.5pt57%
- September 30+2.5pt41%
- September 21+2.0pt34%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 56,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 197,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt66%
- October 31-0.5pt37%
- September 30+1.5pt23%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.5pt93%
- September 4+9.0pt90%
- September 18+4.0pt90%
+2 résultats de plus
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Charles III declare war during his reign ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 12 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Charles III declare war during his reign ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Charles III declare war during his reign ? doit être résolu le 1 mai 2043.
- Comment Will Charles III declare war during his reign ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In the UK the declaration of war is one of the royal prerogatives but of course in practice it's complicated.