Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffDivertissementMusiqueRussie / Ukraine13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète8 févr. 24, 15:32 UTC16 févr. 40, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over.
- I'll define autonomous drone swarms by the following criteria
- While they can be instructed by humans, the individual drones of the swarm have to act autonomously
- A "swarm" has to include five or more drones acting in concert
- A "drone" is an insect whose role it is to serve the hive's queen.
- I am not an entomologist so I am happy to receive feedback on this definition.