Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
GéopolitiqueCustomIATech1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.1%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète4 juin 23, 12:37 UTC1 déc. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Before the end of 2027, will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets (as appearing in the Manifold Market search for that phrase) be above 50%, at the same time, for at least a week?
- This does not include derivative markets such as "Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?"
- Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Conditional markets (e.g., "if there is a war between AI and humans with at least x billion human deaths, will AI wipe out humanity") do not count towards the resolution criteria.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- *Please note that the "AI summary of creator comment" is the exact opposite of my comment.
- The resolution criteria may soon be edited, but not like that.
